Comments on: Sabermetrics Debunk Traditional Baseball Strategy

By: Coach Briggs

Coach Briggs — Tue, 10 Jan 2012 19:35:11 +0000

My comment is similar to Coach Wright’s comment. Sabermetric based strategies typically compare the average number of runs scored in an inning based on one decision, to the average number of runs scored using another. While I agree that most of the time this is the correct way to evaluate a strategy, I would argue that there are some situations where it is not. for example:

From the sacrifice bunt example above, having a runner on first base with no outs is worth an average of .95 runs. Having a runner on second base with one out is worth an average of .75 runs. However, this does not mean that you should never sacrifice bunt.

If I am in a tie game in the bottom of the ninth with a man on first and nobody out, the appropriate question is not “Which decision will give me on average the most runs”. The appropriate question is “Which decision gives me the highest probability of scoring at least one run?”

If you look not just at the average number of runs scored, but the distribution of runs scored, you will see that the number .95 is influenced by the fact that you are much more likely to have a “big inning” with no outs and a guy on first than you are if you have one out and a guy on second. The high potential for big innings makes the average value for the non-bunting scenario higher than the non-bunting scenario. However, scoring more than one run is irrelevant in the bottom of the ninth in a tie game. Although I haven’t seen the data, I would be willing to bet that you are more likely to score 1 or more runs by sacrificing, even though, on average you will score more runs by letting the hitter hit.

Coach Briggs

By: Coach Wright

Coach Wright — Sun, 02 Oct 2011 23:48:31 +0000

I love the application of statistical analysis to the game of baseball, and the resulting dispelling of some baseball ‘myths’. However we have to remember that Sabermetrics in a Macro examination of the game, but while playing the game we are involved in a Micro analysis for the strategy applied.
So let’s take the sacrifice bunt again.
I am down one run 2-3 in the bottom of the last inning.
I have Tommy on first no outs.
At bat is Johnny, batting .200 on the year and .125 against the current pitcher.
The on deck batter and in hole batter both bat over .300.
Tommy steals bases at a .800 clip. The catcher has a weak arm.
The pitcher throws ball one.
The pitcher throws ball two. 2-0 is the count. Johnny still only bats .125 on this pitcher with a batter favorable count.
THIS IS A MICRO SITUATION THAT FACES A COACH. Here is my analysis as the COACH.
At 2-0 the pitcher has to throw a strike or attempt to throw a strike, so the pitch-out is out of the question. In this situation i estimate with the weak arm of the catcher, my guy on first – Tommy would be successful (barring falling down) almost 100% of the time.
So i send Tommy on the 2-0 pitch, he steals successfully and the pitch is a strike (batter fake bunts to hold the catcher in the box).
Now 2-1 count, i sacrifice bunt Johnny moving Tommy to third base.
I now have one out a man on third and two consecutive batters over .300 coming to the plate.

Didn’t i just use my data to give my team the best chance of tying or winning the game.
I think we error in confusing MACRO with MICRO analysis of data. MACRO analysis give us the general information for the game, but the game is PLAYED IN THE MICRO. As a Coach i shouldn’t be afraid of a statistical analysis of the game, but i should be smart enough to use the MICRO analysis on the field during play.

Coach Wright

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By: Steve

Steve — Sat, 16 Feb 2008 16:08:13 +0000

Very interesting view on baseball logic

By: The Monkey

The Monkey — Fri, 15 Feb 2008 22:52:35 +0000

Co-worker of mine offered this via instant message:

A note on pitchers batting and sabermetrics … the teams that have most aggressively embraced sabermetric approaches have been in the AL where the pitcher doesn’t bat … it’s viewed more as a certainty than as a risk that a pitcher will not safely reach base

By: The Monkey

The Monkey — Fri, 15 Feb 2008 22:26:06 +0000

Zac, you raise a good point. Logically, it makes sense to avoid allowing pitchers to cause the team damage when batting. These stats were taken across several years of games, including all teams and players. If we narrowed this sample down to, say, just the seventh, eighth and ninth batters, those numbers might be significantly different.

This aside, you may be introducing somewhat of a new topic in your comment above. The purpose of a sacrifice bunt that I described is to advance a runner already on base. I think you’re talking about sacrificing to defend this runner (protecting him from getting out).

When a batter sacrifices himself, the manager is conceding that he can’t defend him from an out. So why not advance a runner in the process, right? But sabermetrics might tell you to let the batter swing away anyway. He may strike out or hit into a double play, but when he does get a hit, the positives outweigh the negatives.

But again, this metric refers to long-term results involving all players. Thanks for the input! I’d be interested to hear more…

By: Zac

Zac — Fri, 15 Feb 2008 19:31:50 +0000

As to the sacrifice bunt, one of the primary reasons it’s employed is to stay out of a double play. Weak hitters (notably pitchers) have a propensity for doubling up a runner at first. While it may be true that “a runner on first with no outs gives the batting team an average of .95 runs per inning,” I’m guessing a team with two outs and no one on base has a considerably lower chance to score runs that inning. Most pitchers bat well under .200 in a season (most actually hit around .100 – .130), and 90 percent of their outs are either Ks or ground outs. A strikeout with a runner on first yields no benefit. A ground out with a runner on first has a high probability of turning into two outs. Under those circumstances, isn’t it better to bunt?